More Big Names Off the Board, What Now?
Jan 11, 2025 - Written by Kian Behravan
Photo Credit : @PhilsTailgate - X
On January 3, Korean free agent Hye-Seong Kim signed a three-year deal with the Dodgers worth a guaranteed $12.5 million, with options for 2028-29 that could increase the value to $22 million. This is yet another big-market free agent the Angels have missed out on this offseason, so how will they move forward, and who should they target now?
Austin Hays
Two months ago, the Phillies non-tendered outfielder Austin Hays, and he has remained one of the most underrated free agents on the market for 2025. In 2024, Hays was limited to only 85 games due to three IL stints, and put up negative WAR, which is unlike him at all. Once he gets healthy, however, he will return to his normal self. Entering his age-29 season, Hays still has a lot of time left, and an outfielder below 30 is something the Angels need, especially if Ward is dealt this offseason.
Why Hays?
One of the three main outfielders on the Angels is Mickey Moniak, who has a reputation for being tormented by lefties, slashing a devastating .175 / .208 / .428 in 120 at-bats, making a tOPS+ of just 37 on his career; he has also broken both hands hitting against left-handed pitchers. His split versus righties is average at best, and 2024 was a down year after coming off the previous season. Moniak’s only 26, so he has plenty of time left, along with multiple years of team control. If he can stay healthy and turn things around in 2025, he could platoon with Hays in CF. In 2024, Hays hit an absurdly high .354 against left-handed pitchers, logging an OPS north of .940 and adding a tOPS+ of 169. In his career versus lefties, he’s a .277 hitter with an OPS of .800. If Hays finds success in a platoon spot, there’s a chance he could become a regular if something happens to one of the other outfielders.
Another reason Hays would be a good fit is his clutch gene. In high-leverage situations, the Angels as a whole hit .212 last season. Hays, on the other hand, is on par in these spots, with a 100 tOPS+ on his career. While it’s nothing to be in awe about on the surface, advanced stats such as batting average on balls in play (BAbip; .346) can prove that this addition can help the Angels greatly in 2025. He was also an above-average hitter in 2024 with men on, slashing .278 / .308 / .454 with a BABIP of .348 in 97 at-bats. If he’s put in the lineup behind guys who can get on base, like Mike Trout and Nolan Schanuel, he could prove to be a guy who’s capable of driving in runs and winning ball games in the late stages.
It’s no mystery that injuries are a problem in the Angel’s outfield. An extra guy out there for when things happen is always a good thing to have, and when he can produce consistently it adds a bonus. Hays is coming from a down year, so the Angels have a chance to strike a good deal with him. A good place to start is a four-year deal with around $7.5 million AAV. Austin Hays has 5.057 years of service time, so he’s not at the ample time to become a free agent, but since he was non-tendered, it happened anyway. Since he hasn’t reached that six years of service time, there’s a chance he’d be willing to take a smaller deal, considering there hasn’t been much news of any team tied to him. If Hays sees success with the Halos, he could play out his contract or be flipped at the deadline in the coming years.
Photo Credit : @MLBTradeRumors - X
What if Ward isn’t Traded?
Right now, the Angels have five primary outfielders (Trout, Adell, Moniak, Soler, Ward), as well as two secondary outfielders (Kingery, Rengifo) on the 26-man, with more outfielders projected to be on the roster as 2025 goes on. With the signing of Austin Hays, the Angels will have six outfielders on the 26-man roster. However, a Taylor Ward trade has been talked about amongst fans and reporters alike, but nothing has gone through. If Taylor Ward ends up not getting traded and the Angels sign Hays, there is a way to fix the six-outfielder problem without sacrificing key players.
It’s known that Anthony Rendon hasn’t been the best player for the Halos. It’s also known that Taylor Ward has played third base in his career. In the minors and majors, Ward has played 147 games at third base. Ron Washington has said that Rendon will have to earn his spot in 2025. If the Angels strike a deal with Hays, Ward could start the season at third base. Another place Ward has played is first base. The sample sizes are small, but he has played first as recently as 2023. Nolan Schanuel is a below-average hitter when facing lefties, and even though he gets on base a lot, he’s not generating that much run support for the Angels. As Rendon is earning his spot back at third, Ward could play third when facing righties, and move to first versus lefties, benching Schanuel and platooning Rendon.
If Ward isn’t dealt in the offseason, an undoubtedly bold, but feasible, move is letting Mickey Moniak start the season in the minors. The first player that came to mind was Jorge Soler, but there’s a simple reason Moniak is the better option to start in the minor leagues. It’s been established that Hays would be platooned with another outfielder, having him hit against lefties. Although Mickey Moniak looks like the better hitter against righties, Soler is the better candidate because of a characteristic that has nothing to do with him hitting versus right-handed pitching: his ability to hit left-handed pitching. It sounds inconsequential to talk about his stats in this split, but there will be a time when Hays won’t start one of these games, and his platoon mate will start against a lefty. In this split in 2024, Soler put up an OPS of .891, making him better than fifty percent of hitters in the “vs LHP” split (150 sOPS+). Moving aside from those stats, he was a better hitter in general last season, putting up an oWAR of 2.2. One main problem with Soler, however, is his fielding ability, and the solution is simple: DH him and put Rengifo back in the outfield. The infield would be set, with Schanuel, Newman, Neto, and Rendon. Whenever Hays is hitting, he’ll be in the field, and Rengifo could spend that time in the DH spot.
Ward being traded is a likely transaction the Angels will make, but if it doesn’t happen, the Angels are still safe to sign Austin Hays without any major problems.
Photo Credit : @MLBTradeRumors - X
What About the Other Guys?
There are still plenty of outfielders on the market, most notably Hays’ former teammate, Anthony Santander. Santander has a better track record, so why not sign him instead? The answer only consists of one word: Defense. In 2024, Santander gave up seven runs in the field (-7 Rdrs), highlighting his struggles in that area. A surface solution would be to DH him, but the Angels have Jorge Soler, who is also a bad defender. Having two poor fielders in the outfield, the Angels will have to put one in the field. Austin Hays, while having a mediocre glove, makes up for it with his arm. In 2023, his last full season he had an arm value of 3, which is above the 90th percentile. Additionally, he has a 90 mph average velocity, which is in the 83rd percentile. With a plus defender in the outfield, Hays could move to center field and put Mike Trout in a corner spot, finally giving him a break after all these years.
Another common argument about Santander is his ability to hit home runs and drive runners in. While it seems like a good point as the basic stats are analyzed, there’s one major problem. As the slugging percentage goes up, the batting average and on-base percentage go down. This trend in numbers is very similar to former Angel, and future Hall-of-Famer, Albert Pujols. He was with the Angels from 2012-2021, and as the years went on, his slugging rates remained relatively the same in the first couple of years, but when the batting average started to decline, so did everything else. Santander seems on that trend, except with much higher strikeout rates than Pujols.
Will Hays fit?
Austin Hays is a bat that will fit in with the Angels just fine. They need help with hitting lefties, and Hays can do just that. His plus-arm can also contribute in the field, which is also needed, considering the recent signing of Jorge Soler and the injury record of the others. A signing like this is a much lower cost compared to the other bigger-name outfielders on the board and can prove to turn a good profit, depending if the Angels decide to trade Hays after a couple of years or choose to keep him for the entirety of his contract. However, if a signing like this happens, sacrifices will have to be made in terms of trading away players, although something like that isn’t 100 percent mandatory.
Ultimately, Austin Hays seems like a low-risk-high-reward bat that could beef up the Angels outfield, and hopefully propel them into a redeeming 2025 season.
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